ECCF - temperature

What do fish and flowers have in common?

mguckian — Mon, 18 Dec 2017 17:15:52 +0000

Dec 18, 2017

A) A photo of my field site in Gothic, CO, where flowers begin blooming early each spring. B) Fish ladder in Parker River, MA where fish are counted each spring. C) A photo of Claytonia lanceoloata (spring beauty), which is one of my study species for my dissertation. D) A photo of Alosa pseudoharengus (alewife), which is the fish species I have been studying at the NE CSC as part of my NSF GRIP program. Photo credit: 1A and 1C by Rebecca Dalton, 1B and 1D by Matthew Devine.

I have answered this question more times than I can count since September. My colleagues, friends, and family members have been curious as to why someone who studies plants, can suddenly switch to studying fish for a semester.

Since starting graduate school, I have been studying how climate change affects the time when plants begin flowering, and how the timing of flowering affects plant-pollinator and plant-plant interactions. Specifically, warming temperatures are causing some flowering species to emerge and reproduce earlier in the season, while others respond to warming temperature by emerging later. If different species in the same place respond unequally to the same environmental cues, populations might experience higher levels of competition for shared resources than in the past. To answer these questions, I have field experiments set up to study early-flowering species in Colorado (Figures 1A and 1C).

Ok, so a scientist who grew up in the land-locked wilds of Pittsburgh and now studies plants in Colorado, both quite far from the ocean, has taken an interest in fish. How did this happen?

Around this time, just about a year ago, I began browsing through the list of projects posted on the web portal for National Science Foundation Graduate Research Internship Program (NSF GRIP)1. The NSF GRIP enables graduate students to work in federally funded research labs including the United States Geological Survey, United States Department of Agriculture, and more. I have always worked in academic research labs, and I wanted to know how federal research labs conduct ecological research. When I searched the key word “phenology,” which means, timing of life cycle events, I found an opportunity to work with Dr. Michelle Staudinger at the Department of the Interior’s Northeast Climate Science Center. Since the NSF GRIP is specifically aimed at increasing professional skills and preparing students for future careers, I decided this might be a good opportunity to expand my understanding of how climate affects timing of life cycle events in a different species… fish. Dr. Staudinger and I prepared a proposal last year, and I am very excited to be here working with her lab group during the fall 2017 semester.

We spent the semester trying to answer the question, “What about the environment best predicts the timing of alewife migration?” Alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) are one of two river herring species in North America, which migrate to coastal freshwater systems from the ocean to begin reproducing (Figures 1B and 1D). In Massachusetts, there is anecdotal information that some of these migrations are happening earlier in the season as a result of warming temperatures, while others show no discernable trend. To best understand what drives migration, we are working with a range of stakeholders and partners from the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries and colleagues at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Three months later, we are just about to find out the answer!

But back to my first question, “What do fish and flowers have in common?”, well, they are both organisms which are affected by climate change. They rely on temperature, which is increasing regionally and globally, to begin certain parts of their life cycle (flowering and migrating), but the story is more complex than just temperature alone. For example, the timing of snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains is critical for emergence of spring plants. Similarly, spring stream flow could be another cue alewives use to begin migration. Finally, they are both systems that I have learned to think critically about in terms of how anthropogenic changes affect natural processes, and how complex species interactions may be changing across diverse types of ecosystems.

In addition to studying these two ecological systems, I have learned about the differences between basic and stakeholder-driven research. The main difference between basic and applied research is that the questions pursued in basic research are not necessarily coming from a conservation or management angle, which is the foundation of stakeholder-driven research. The process of finding an interesting question to work on for my PhD required a lot of time alone, reading the literature and finding gaps in our knowledge. The applied research that I have been exposed to this semester is more collaborative and requires relationships with stakeholders, such as state agencies, conservation groups, and/or land managers to determine the highest priority question(s). Not only the relationships with stakeholders vital to forming questions, we also discuss how to produce results that can best inform decision-making. I really enjoyed the chance to engage with our stakeholder for our project, and I hope to take all that I have learned back to my home PhD program at Duke University and apply to my career path after graduation and beyond.

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1The National Science Foundation was created in 1950 to promote research in fundamental science and engineering. As an independent federal agency, they support nearly 25% of all federal funded basic academic research. They are a large supporter of graduate student research, with programs such as the Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP), which provides three years of funding for graduate students, and the Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant, which enables graduate students to pursue independent research. The National Science Foundation offers additional grant opportunities, called Graduate Research Internship Program (GRIP)

Category:

Science & research

Tags:

climate change

fieldwork

fish conservation

fisheries

Author/writer:

Rebecca Dalton

Reef temperature wrangler

mguckian — Mon, 16 Oct 2017 14:21:12 +0000

Oct 16, 2017

Photo: wildcoast.net

Coral reefs often go unnoticed because they’re underwater; but even though we don’t regularly pay much attention to them, they’re an extremely important part of our everyday lives. Coral reefs have been estimated to provide support for over a quarter of all marine species and this extreme biodiversity makes them a frequent source of discovery for new medicines that can help fight cancer and other diseases. They also protect our coastlines from storm surges, and provide millions of individuals with a source food and income. These are a few of the reasons why the world’s coral reefs are valued at nearly 10 trillion dollars.

Coral Crisis

Unfortunately, we’re in a bit of a coral crisis. Recently we’ve been losing a frightening amount of the world’s coral reefs. The vast majority of the reefs (80%) in the Caribbean, and over half in the Indo-Pacific region have already been lost. This large decline in reefs is predominantly caused by coral bleaching:

Inside the coral live tiny photosynthetic plants – or algae called zooxanthellae - that provide the coral with food and its beautiful color, but when the water around the coral becomes too warm, the algae are forced out of the coral, leaving behind the coral’s white calcium carbonate skeleton, giving it a “bleached” appearance. If the coral goes too long without the support from the algae, they starve, become vulnerable to disease, and frequently die.

Figure 2. PRocess and causes of coral bleaching. Photo: NOAA.

It is expected that as global warming continues to cause water temperatures to rise, coral bleaching will become more frequent and severe. By 2050, it’s projected that between 91 and 98% of the world’s coral reefs will be exposed to bleaching-level thermal stress on an annual basis.

Coral Reef Monitoring

Fortunately, there is a lot of great work being done to address this important issue. The South Florida and Caribbean Network (SFCN) of the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program has been monitoring water temperature and coral bleaching since the late 1980’s and have collected an amazing supply of data. Through an internship with the Young Leaders in Climate Change (YLCC), I had the opportunity to work with SFCN as a data analyst to make sense of their data. Below are a few of my most important findings.

Figure 3. Stages of coral bleaching. Photo: The Ocean Agency / XL Catlin Seaview / Richard Vevers)

Water Temperature Trends and Coral Bleaching Forecasts

Water temperature has been increasing in the Virgin Islands – one location where SFCN monitors coral bleaching – since the project was started in 1988. Although this long-term trend is expected to continue into the future, it doesn’t suggest that water temperatures will increase consistently on a year-to-year basis.

In order to anticipate what water temperatures can be expected in the near future, we can use past data to create 24-month water temperature forecasts. Since water temperature and coral bleaching have a very strong relationship, our forecast is helpful because it lets us anticipate whether a coming year will be good or bad for reefs and if there will be more or less bleaching. For example, our forecasts for the Virgin Islands found that 2017 will be slightly cooler than previous years, with a relatively low amount of bleaching predicted (22%) - good news for the coral reefs in that region. This type of foresight allows for adaptive resource management and more effective monitoring of coral bleaching, but much more needs to be done to address the issue.

What is being done and what you can do to help

Scientists and researchers around the world are working on many different projects to help minimize the impact of coral bleaching. These projects include: coral nurseries and reef restoration initiatives, studying the factors that increase coral’s susceptibility to bleaching, and even genetically modifying algae to be resistant to warmer ocean temperatures.

Although these researchers’ are making important contributions, they won’t be able to fix the problem alone. Saving our coral reefs is going to require many people making small efforts to help battle coral bleaching and global warming. Separately, these small individual efforts may seem miniscule, but if enough people make them, they will have a large impact overall. After all, it takes millions of individual coral polyps to build a reef.

Figure 4. Coral polyps. Photo: SFCN.

Fortunately, one of the most frequent questions I get when I talk about coral bleaching is “what can I do to help?” Here are a few of the many ways you can help save our reefs:

Reduce your carbon footprint.
Inform others about coral bleaching to spread awareness.
Support organizations dedicated to conserving coral reefs.
Contact your government officials about implementing laws to preserve marine ecosystems.
- Marine protected areas help mitigate coral bleaching.
Reduce water consumption to minimize runoff pollution
If you live near the coast, volunteer for cleanups or participate in citizen science initiatives to report cases of coral bleaching

Resources

Coral reef conservation organizations
Coral bleaching citizen science
- NOAA Coral Reef Watch
- CoralWatch
Netflix documentary
- Chasing Coral
NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch Program
- Educational resources
- Water temperature monitoring

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Author/writer:

Brandon Araujo

Climate change and infrastructure impacts

mguckian — Mon, 02 Oct 2017 13:02:23 +0000

Oct 2, 2017

Photo: Toni Klemm

Our infrastructure is designed for the climate in which it was developed; engineering standards and logistical procedures are based on historical weather patterns, and as environmental conditions change, some of these systems may need to be re-configured.

In aviation, aircraft takeoff performance depends on temperature. This is because in the atmosphere, temperature is the key determinant of air density, which in turn affects the amount of lift that an airplane wing generates at a given speed. Pilots refer to this as the “density altitude”, a metric indicating the elevation that would produce a given air density if the temperature was 15°C (standard meteorological conditions). For instance, an airport might be located at a true altitude of 100 feet, but on a very hot day could have a density altitude of 1,000 feet, indicating that the air is less dense because of the heat.

Density altitude is essential in takeoff performance calculations as it determines the airplane’s required takeoff speed. At lower density altitudes, a wing produces less lift, all things equal, and so must travel faster to fly. If the required takeoff speed is high enough, there may not be enough runway available for the aircraft to accelerate; the only option then is to reduce the airplane’s weight, likely by removing payload – passengers and cargo. This is referred to as a “weight restriction”.

The 1°C or so of warming that the earth has experienced since pre-industrial times has already raised the average density altitude by about 100 feet. Future climate change will raise density altitudes further, likely by several hundred more feet. This will make weight restrictions more common, with potentially non-trivial impacts on the payload capacity of airplanes worldwide.

Research that I’ve recently conducted along with Dr. Terry Thompson and Dr. Radley Horton (see here and here) , suggests that by the second half of the 21st century, 10 – 30% of commercial flights taking off near their current maximum takeoff weights (as a long-haul flight often does) could require at least some weight restriction; this in turn comes with overall payload reductions of up to 0.5% as compared to a world with no warming. The small percentage change may sound insignificant, but even minor changes in weight can have large costs both in increased fuel consumption and reduced passenger load when spread across an airline’s fleet. To put this in context, a 0.5% payload reduction adds up to as much as 18 million passengers per year globally at today’s traffic levels.

Weight restriction is just one of several impacts of climate change on the aviation industry. Work by Dr. Paul Williams has shown that turbulence associated with high altitude winds may increase in frequency and intensity due to a strengthening jet stream (see research here and here) , and sea-level rise may damage coastal airports like New York’s LaGuardia or San Francisco International. In addition, amplified heat stress may make it dangerous for people to work outside in some regions, meaning that airport ramp workers will need more frequent breaks and other precautions to avoid severely reduced productivity and potential heat illness.

Most industries face future climate risks to their infrastructure or resource supplies, and most of that risk has not been thoroughly explored or quantified. An enormous amount of work will be needed to adapt our infrastructure and modify our logistical procedures to better prepare for future heat, storms, and sea levels. The sooner this work begins, the more effective adaptation can be; without planning, less hospitable climate conditions will impose higher costs on industries, and increasingly frequent natural disasters will be more damaging and harder to recover from.

Of course, we must keep the focus on why we have this issue in the first place – exponentially growing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation strategies help us cope with climate impacts that are already in motion, but we must also tackle the root cause of the problem by rapidly reducing fossil fuel consumption, deforestation, and other drivers of climate change. If we fail to avert the worst climate outcomes, we risk spending an increasing percentage of our economic output and societal wealth and energy dealing with the new climate that we’ve created. The costs will come from large natural disasters like Hurricane Harvey, but also from the need to re-engineer and redesign procedures for modified weather patterns, protect infrastructure from sea level rise, and account for the reduced economic performance associated with higher temperatures. Perhaps a better understanding of the costs of climate change will encourage us to work to prevent these worst-case scenarios before they become a reality that we have to adapt to.

References:

Coffel, E. D., Thompson, T. R. & Horton, R. M. The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance. Climatic Change 1–8 (2017). doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9

Coffel, E. & Horton, R. Climate Change and the Impact of Extreme Temperatures on Aviation. Weather. Clim. Soc. 7, 94–102 (2015).

Williams, P. D. Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 576–586 (2017).

Williams, P. D. & Joshi, M. M. Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 644–648 (2013).

Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R. S., Lloyd, S. J., Holt, T. & Tol, R. S. J. The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity. Arch. Environ. Occup. Health 64, 217–227 (2009).

Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. & Miguel, E. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature 527, 235–239 (2015).

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Author/writer:

Ethan Coffel

Spatiotemporal spawning patterns of smallmouth bass at its upstream invasion edge

Mikaela — Tue, 17 Jan 2017 16:21:03 +0000

Authors:

Rubenson, E.S. & Olden, J.D.

Publication source:

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Year:

2016

Google Scholar or DOI link:

DOI

Publication image:

Publication summary:

Climate change and land-use practices are causing widespread warming of streams, forcing resident species to adapt or migrate. For instance, in the John Day River, Oregon (Columbia River basin), rising temperatures are facilitating the range expansion of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu into critical salmon rearing habitat. Understanding Smallmouth Bass reproductive ecology at its range boundaries is integral to understanding and ultimately predicting its upstream range expansion.

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CSC Region:

Importance of forestry practices relative to microhabitat and microclimate changes for juvenile pond-breeding amphibians

Mikaela — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 14:37:03 +0000

Authors:

Earl, J.E. & Semlitsch, R.D.

Publication source:

Forest Ecology and Management

Year:

2016

Google Scholar or DOI link:

DOI

Publication image:

Publication summary:

Balancing the goals of forest management and species conservation is a major challenge. Forestry practices could be refined with greater understanding of the importance of large-scale forestry practices versus smaller-scale microhabitat and microclimate variables in driving demographic vital rates for species of conservation concern.

Keywords/Tags:

CSC Region: