ECCF - climate impacts

Reef temperature wrangler

mguckian — Mon, 16 Oct 2017 14:21:12 +0000

Oct 16, 2017

Photo: wildcoast.net

Coral reefs often go unnoticed because they’re underwater; but even though we don’t regularly pay much attention to them, they’re an extremely important part of our everyday lives. Coral reefs have been estimated to provide support for over a quarter of all marine species and this extreme biodiversity makes them a frequent source of discovery for new medicines that can help fight cancer and other diseases. They also protect our coastlines from storm surges, and provide millions of individuals with a source food and income. These are a few of the reasons why the world’s coral reefs are valued at nearly 10 trillion dollars.

Coral Crisis

Unfortunately, we’re in a bit of a coral crisis. Recently we’ve been losing a frightening amount of the world’s coral reefs. The vast majority of the reefs (80%) in the Caribbean, and over half in the Indo-Pacific region have already been lost. This large decline in reefs is predominantly caused by coral bleaching:

Inside the coral live tiny photosynthetic plants – or algae called zooxanthellae - that provide the coral with food and its beautiful color, but when the water around the coral becomes too warm, the algae are forced out of the coral, leaving behind the coral’s white calcium carbonate skeleton, giving it a “bleached” appearance. If the coral goes too long without the support from the algae, they starve, become vulnerable to disease, and frequently die.

Figure 2. PRocess and causes of coral bleaching. Photo: NOAA.

It is expected that as global warming continues to cause water temperatures to rise, coral bleaching will become more frequent and severe. By 2050, it’s projected that between 91 and 98% of the world’s coral reefs will be exposed to bleaching-level thermal stress on an annual basis.

Coral Reef Monitoring

Fortunately, there is a lot of great work being done to address this important issue. The South Florida and Caribbean Network (SFCN) of the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program has been monitoring water temperature and coral bleaching since the late 1980’s and have collected an amazing supply of data. Through an internship with the Young Leaders in Climate Change (YLCC), I had the opportunity to work with SFCN as a data analyst to make sense of their data. Below are a few of my most important findings.

Figure 3. Stages of coral bleaching. Photo: The Ocean Agency / XL Catlin Seaview / Richard Vevers)

Water Temperature Trends and Coral Bleaching Forecasts

Water temperature has been increasing in the Virgin Islands – one location where SFCN monitors coral bleaching – since the project was started in 1988. Although this long-term trend is expected to continue into the future, it doesn’t suggest that water temperatures will increase consistently on a year-to-year basis.

In order to anticipate what water temperatures can be expected in the near future, we can use past data to create 24-month water temperature forecasts. Since water temperature and coral bleaching have a very strong relationship, our forecast is helpful because it lets us anticipate whether a coming year will be good or bad for reefs and if there will be more or less bleaching. For example, our forecasts for the Virgin Islands found that 2017 will be slightly cooler than previous years, with a relatively low amount of bleaching predicted (22%) - good news for the coral reefs in that region. This type of foresight allows for adaptive resource management and more effective monitoring of coral bleaching, but much more needs to be done to address the issue.

What is being done and what you can do to help

Scientists and researchers around the world are working on many different projects to help minimize the impact of coral bleaching. These projects include: coral nurseries and reef restoration initiatives, studying the factors that increase coral’s susceptibility to bleaching, and even genetically modifying algae to be resistant to warmer ocean temperatures.

Although these researchers’ are making important contributions, they won’t be able to fix the problem alone. Saving our coral reefs is going to require many people making small efforts to help battle coral bleaching and global warming. Separately, these small individual efforts may seem miniscule, but if enough people make them, they will have a large impact overall. After all, it takes millions of individual coral polyps to build a reef.

Figure 4. Coral polyps. Photo: SFCN.

Fortunately, one of the most frequent questions I get when I talk about coral bleaching is “what can I do to help?” Here are a few of the many ways you can help save our reefs:

Reduce your carbon footprint.
Inform others about coral bleaching to spread awareness.
Support organizations dedicated to conserving coral reefs.
Contact your government officials about implementing laws to preserve marine ecosystems.
- Marine protected areas help mitigate coral bleaching.
Reduce water consumption to minimize runoff pollution
If you live near the coast, volunteer for cleanups or participate in citizen science initiatives to report cases of coral bleaching

Resources

Coral reef conservation organizations
Coral bleaching citizen science
- NOAA Coral Reef Watch
- CoralWatch
Netflix documentary
- Chasing Coral
NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch Program
- Educational resources
- Water temperature monitoring

Category:

Science & research

Tags:

advocacy

biodiversity

climate impacts

global warming

oceans

temperature

Author/writer:

Brandon Araujo

Climate change and infrastructure impacts

mguckian — Mon, 02 Oct 2017 13:02:23 +0000

Oct 2, 2017

Photo: Toni Klemm

Our infrastructure is designed for the climate in which it was developed; engineering standards and logistical procedures are based on historical weather patterns, and as environmental conditions change, some of these systems may need to be re-configured.

In aviation, aircraft takeoff performance depends on temperature. This is because in the atmosphere, temperature is the key determinant of air density, which in turn affects the amount of lift that an airplane wing generates at a given speed. Pilots refer to this as the “density altitude”, a metric indicating the elevation that would produce a given air density if the temperature was 15°C (standard meteorological conditions). For instance, an airport might be located at a true altitude of 100 feet, but on a very hot day could have a density altitude of 1,000 feet, indicating that the air is less dense because of the heat.

Density altitude is essential in takeoff performance calculations as it determines the airplane’s required takeoff speed. At lower density altitudes, a wing produces less lift, all things equal, and so must travel faster to fly. If the required takeoff speed is high enough, there may not be enough runway available for the aircraft to accelerate; the only option then is to reduce the airplane’s weight, likely by removing payload – passengers and cargo. This is referred to as a “weight restriction”.

The 1°C or so of warming that the earth has experienced since pre-industrial times has already raised the average density altitude by about 100 feet. Future climate change will raise density altitudes further, likely by several hundred more feet. This will make weight restrictions more common, with potentially non-trivial impacts on the payload capacity of airplanes worldwide.

Research that I’ve recently conducted along with Dr. Terry Thompson and Dr. Radley Horton (see here and here) , suggests that by the second half of the 21st century, 10 – 30% of commercial flights taking off near their current maximum takeoff weights (as a long-haul flight often does) could require at least some weight restriction; this in turn comes with overall payload reductions of up to 0.5% as compared to a world with no warming. The small percentage change may sound insignificant, but even minor changes in weight can have large costs both in increased fuel consumption and reduced passenger load when spread across an airline’s fleet. To put this in context, a 0.5% payload reduction adds up to as much as 18 million passengers per year globally at today’s traffic levels.

Weight restriction is just one of several impacts of climate change on the aviation industry. Work by Dr. Paul Williams has shown that turbulence associated with high altitude winds may increase in frequency and intensity due to a strengthening jet stream (see research here and here) , and sea-level rise may damage coastal airports like New York’s LaGuardia or San Francisco International. In addition, amplified heat stress may make it dangerous for people to work outside in some regions, meaning that airport ramp workers will need more frequent breaks and other precautions to avoid severely reduced productivity and potential heat illness.

Most industries face future climate risks to their infrastructure or resource supplies, and most of that risk has not been thoroughly explored or quantified. An enormous amount of work will be needed to adapt our infrastructure and modify our logistical procedures to better prepare for future heat, storms, and sea levels. The sooner this work begins, the more effective adaptation can be; without planning, less hospitable climate conditions will impose higher costs on industries, and increasingly frequent natural disasters will be more damaging and harder to recover from.

Of course, we must keep the focus on why we have this issue in the first place – exponentially growing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation strategies help us cope with climate impacts that are already in motion, but we must also tackle the root cause of the problem by rapidly reducing fossil fuel consumption, deforestation, and other drivers of climate change. If we fail to avert the worst climate outcomes, we risk spending an increasing percentage of our economic output and societal wealth and energy dealing with the new climate that we’ve created. The costs will come from large natural disasters like Hurricane Harvey, but also from the need to re-engineer and redesign procedures for modified weather patterns, protect infrastructure from sea level rise, and account for the reduced economic performance associated with higher temperatures. Perhaps a better understanding of the costs of climate change will encourage us to work to prevent these worst-case scenarios before they become a reality that we have to adapt to.

References:

Coffel, E. D., Thompson, T. R. & Horton, R. M. The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance. Climatic Change 1–8 (2017). doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9

Coffel, E. & Horton, R. Climate Change and the Impact of Extreme Temperatures on Aviation. Weather. Clim. Soc. 7, 94–102 (2015).

Williams, P. D. Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 576–586 (2017).

Williams, P. D. & Joshi, M. M. Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 644–648 (2013).

Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R. S., Lloyd, S. J., Holt, T. & Tol, R. S. J. The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity. Arch. Environ. Occup. Health 64, 217–227 (2009).

Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. & Miguel, E. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature 527, 235–239 (2015).

Category:

Tags:

Author/writer:

Ethan Coffel

Notes from the Field: An Educational Swamp Tour

mguckian — Mon, 31 Jul 2017 13:50:06 +0000

Jul 31, 2017

Students listen to Dean Stacie Haynie (standing) of the College of Humanities and Social Sciences discuss possibilities at LSU.

For three weeks every summer, undergraduate students from the South Central United States, representing a wide range of cultural backgrounds participate in the “Undergraduate Summer Internship for Underrepresented Minorities” program to visit and learn about climate impacts in the South Central Climate Science Center Region (SC CSC). This year participants spent the balmy month of July starting at Louisiana State University, moving to the University of Oklahoma, and finally ending their trip at Texas Tech University. I have helped with this internship from my home institution (LSU) in various capacities for the past four years under the leadership of Drs. Kristine DeLong and Victor Rivera-Monroy. As a graduate student, I have been largely responsible for technical assistance (e.g., driving vans, coordinating lunches, assisting students with tasks). However, I also get the more exciting tasks of sharing my LSU-learned Gulf Coast knowledge, and, as a native Louisianimal, I get to coordinate different events along the way that I know will represent Louisiana well!

The majority of climate-related issues here in Louisiana are primarily associated with sea-level rise, and our week with the undergraduates delves deeply into those subjects. The trip begins with a tour of LSU campus concentrating on its lush vegetation and its natural and cultural histories, as well as a tour of our facilities, especially those involved with our coast. Next, they get a true set of swamp tours beginning at the coast, moving inland to freshwater swamps, and finally the cultural swamp – New Orleans. The students meet nearly 100 different people along the way: professors, land managers, climate scientists, decision makers, other students, you name it! The week is chock full of work at each location and for everyone involved. Below is a series of photos documenting the summer program activities.

Dr. Mike Polito (wearing blue shirt) of the Department of Oceanography and Coastal Studies discusses his research in marine food-web biology.

Students take elevation measurements of a rapidly subsiding barrier island 10 miles offshore.

Mangroves are beginning to migrate into coastal Louisiana – a direct result of rising temperatures. Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) cannot survive the freezing temperatures that once existed in South Louisiana.

Dr. Victor Rivera-Monroy (far left) teaches students how to take sediment cores to learn about sediment accretion, plant biology, and soil biogeochemistry in saltwater marshes.

Kristen Buter (far right) of Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium leads students on a kayak tour of classic Louisiana saltwater marshes.

Students receive a very rare opportunity to visit a shrimp processor in Dulac, Louisiana. Mr. Tracey Trahan (far left) even boiled some authentically fresh Louisiana shrimp for us!

Dr. Victor Rivera-Monroy (center background) again shows students about sediment coring, only this time he shows them the differences in a freshwater swamp heavily accreting sediment.

The Atchafalaya Swamp, the largest cypress-tupelo swamp in the world, is an ideal spot for lunch.

Dr. Barry Keim of LSU (far left) leads a 14-hour tour of New Orleans covering everything from Lake Pontchartrain to the French Quarter. Here he stops to explain the unique nature of burial history in New Orleans.

A sunset walk from the Mississippi River down to Bourbon Street completes the weeklong swamp tour.

It seems the only rest available during the internship is during the van rides!

Photo credits to Marissa Vara and Gilman Ouellette.

Category:

Science & research

Tags:

climate impacts

coastal systems ecology

engagement

fieldwork

STEM

Author/writer:

Clay Tucker

Analyzing and Communicating Extreme Climate Risk

mguckian — Fri, 14 Apr 2017 16:20:20 +0000

Apr 17, 2017

High water road closure. Photo: C. Tucker

Public opinion and scientific consensus are not always on the same page. For example, the theory of heliocentrism (the Earth revolving around the Sun) was first proposed by Greek theorists 2,500 years ago and later confirmed by Nicolaus Copernicus, Johannes Kepler, Galileo Galilei, and Isaac Newton in the 16^th and 17^th centuries, but not widely accepted by the church, and ultimately the public, until the 1820s. Today’s “heliocentrism” is climate change, especially the predictions of frequency and intensity changes in extreme weather events. In short, burning fossil fuels increases atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which in turn increases the capture and holding capacity of the heat Earth receives from the Sun, thus increasing global temperatures. Temperature changes cascade onto weather events, especially with regard to tropical cyclones and intense rainfalls where high temperatures can increase the amount of water and energy in the atmosphere. We term these “extreme events” because they occur relatively rarely and have large effects both spatially and temporally.

I study “return periods” of extreme weather events—how often an event can be expected to happen on average. For example, my home state of Louisiana gets hurricanes approximately once every decade on average. I am in my third decade of life and have experienced three memorable hurricanes. In 1992, I dropped a can of soup on my foot in the dark while power to my home was out during Hurricane Andrew. In 2005, my high school was flooded with students from New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina. In 2012, I had moved away from my childhood home, only to return during the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac’s devastation. Most recently, my hometown was inundated by as much as 30 inches of rain in August 2016. Instead of hiding in my home as I had before, I joined our state climatologist in photo-documenting the storm.

Images from recent flooding: The yardboat. Photo: C. Tucker

This last event was called “The Storm with No Name” because of its hurricane-like precipitation. In part, this lack of a name led the public astray, because people often believe that only a large, named storm can do any real damage. On the contrary, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced by flood waters, billions of dollars of damage were estimated to private and public land, and more than a dozen people perished in the storm (USGS Report, p. 23). To display the magnitude of the event, rainfall estimates were given a 1 in 1000 chance of happening each year, and to describe the event it was colloquially termed a “1000-year event” – which sounds like something that only happens once in 1,000 years. Though this is true in some ways (river gauges did reach thousand-year return period levels), the historic record of floods in Baton Rouge tells an interesting story: similar parishes in Louisiana have received notice and even federal funding from past floods in 1953, 1967, 1983, 1990, and 2001. When describing a return period of 1000 years, what scientists actually mean is that the event has a very small chance of happening in any given year. But most people hear “1000-year flood” and think, “This won’t happen again for another 999 years,” when in fact the event could happen again next year (or the year after)!

Through my experiences here on the Gulf Coast, I find that memories of extreme weather can fade through time. We remember these events, but not for their destructive nature. Instead, we remember these events because of how resilient and strong we were during and after them. Recognizing our resilience is important, but it must not blind us from the fact that extreme weather events can and will happen in the future, and that we must be prepared for them. If a house is built in a floodplain, it should be raised or leveed to prevent inundation, or at the very least have flood insurance that protects both the house itself and the contents within. Large trees should not be planted directly adjacent to houses and powerlines; Hurricane Katrina damage in my Baton Rouge neighborhood was largely due to downed trees and limbs. Finally, neighborly help goes a long way. Federal emergency managers can be overly taxed during extreme weather events. During the flood last year in Louisiana, a huge force of local, responsible boat-owners led by local police rescued thousands of people from their flooded homes. They are now known as the “Cajun Navy” for their brave efforts, and their boats could be seen on dry grass for weeks after the storm as a reminder of the magnitude of the flood.

Historical documents prove that extreme weather has happened in the past. Extreme events analysis shows that these events can and will continue to occur. Our own memories remind us that we have experienced the power of atmospheric activity. It seems that historical documents, climate science, and public perception are matched here. Maybe that provides an opening for greater public engagement with the broader issue of climate change. That would be great, because stronger collaboration and shared understanding of the world between scientists and the public makes for a more prepared society.

Category:

Science & research

Tags:

adaptation

adaptive communication

Author/writer:

Clay Tucker

Projected changes in extreme temperature events based on the NARCCAP model suite

Mikaela — Mon, 03 Apr 2017 16:41:17 +0000

Authors:

Horton, R.M., Coffel, E.D., Winter, J.M., & Bader, D.A.

Publication source:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2015

Google Scholar or DOI link:

DOI

Publication image:

Publication summary:

Throughout the 21st century extreme temperatures are projected to increase faster than the mean over parts of the U.S. We use the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of high resolution regional climate models to investigate temperature changes and their causes over North America. Our results show that the eastern half of the continental U.S. is likely to see extreme temperatures diverge from the mean more than in the west, and we also find that large-scale synoptic setups - as characterized by their geopotential height anomalies - cannot explain the amplified warming. This result suggests that other dynamics, especially soil moisture feedbacks, may be driving the faster warming of extreme temperatures as compared to the mean.

Keywords/Tags:

regional climate modeling

CSC Region:

Northeast CSC